Macau’s casino industry is set to maintain its strong momentum in the third quarter of 2025, with major investment banks projecting higher gross gaming revenue (GGR) driven by rising visitor numbers and a vibrant entertainment calendar. July’s revenue forecasts have already been raised, reflecting ongoing confidence in the region’s gaming market performance1.
Key Projections and July’s Performance
- Leading banks such as Macquarie and Citigroup have upgraded their forecasts for July’s GGR, now estimating revenue between MOP 20.8 billion and MOP 22 billion.
- The latest data suggests an average daily GGR of MOP 696 million for the week ending July 13, marking a 10% year-on-year increase despite a slight 3% week-on-week dip linked to the conclusion of a Jacky Cheung concert series.
- July’s projected GGR of MOP 21 billion is approximately 86% of July 2019 levels, underlining the sector’s ongoing recovery.
Factors Supporting Q3 Growth
- Strong Visitor Numbers: Macau continues to benefit from a steady inflow of tourists, which is further buoyed by the launch of new premium hotels.
- Entertainment Pipeline: High-profile concerts—past and upcoming, like those of Aaron Kwok and Sandy Lam—are expected to attract crowds and drive additional casino footfall throughout the quarter.
- Resilient Gaming Mix: While there was a soft pullback in daily VIP revenue mid-July, mass market GGR is up by as much as 3% compared to last month, ensuring balanced growth across player segments.
Upward Revisions for 2025
- Based on current trends, Macquarie has revised its full-year GGR forecast up by 5% to MOP 235.7 billion, predicting a 4% annual increase.
- HSBC’s guidance notes that if current daily averages persist, July’s GGR will land comfortably within the higher MOP 20.8–22 billion range1.
Outlook
With a combination of new hotel openings, a packed event calendar, and solid visitor demand, Macau’s gaming industry appears set for a stable and lucrative Q3. Continued strength in both VIP and mass market play is likely to keep the region’s recovery on track, leaving analysts hopeful for further gains heading into the year-end.
1 Macau gaming revenue projected to remain strong in Q3